Re: High Definition DVD

RE: High Definition DVD

2009-01-15T20:24:10Z

Good catch, Ross: Carnoy's column is particularly on the money. The "streaming video will kill Blu-ray" idea is so far ahead of actual bandwidth (and presumes $-neutral pay-per-view, which I wouldn't).

(The previous article noted was good also--and, for once, seems to include PS3's in total player count.)

Blu-ray isn't putting DVD out of business any time soon. Nor does it need to in order to be significant.

RE: High Definition DVD

2009-01-15T20:09:28Z

Another blog -- "9 reasons why Blu-ray will succeed" Posted by David Carnoy -- http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-18438_7-10142913-82.html

RE: High Definition DVD

2009-01-14T19:38:32Z

Nice article, Ross. It looks like Blu-ray *is* taking off.

I regard that as good news for public libraries since our "public habit" is to circulate atoms rather than simply provide access.

On another note, I do wonder if the Blu-ray coating is the one developed a few years back for DVDs, but never made available for public consumption. I suspect because it would cut into repeat sales.

RE: High Definition DVD

2009-01-13T21:23:43Z

Another article -- "Blu-ray discs seen as bright spot in glum season" By Associated Press http://www.technologyreview.com/wire/21948/?a=f

RE: High Definition DVD

2009-01-12T22:05:32Z

Don't know yet ... I'll report if I learn anything from our tech services department (who are stuck with doing repairs).

RE: High Definition DVD

2009-01-05T18:25:00Z

Which is true for some people, not for others, but pundits seem to have a problem with situations that aren't black and white.

I composed a comment on the NYT piece earlier, but WebJunction apparently rejected it (unclear why). Briefly, the pundit who says optical discs are all going away in a few years is almost certainly wrong unless "a few" translates to ten-15 years. (Netflix' CEO, who understands this stuff, thinks downloads might pass DVDs for movie-length material in another decade or more.) The person who says Blu-ray probably won't entirely replace DVD, and may never actually surpass it, is probably right--but that doesn't keep Blu-ray from being a success. Unless, of course, "success" requires market domination. (How many folks call the Macintosh a failure, with 5% of the market? None that I know of.)

I use the "Target test," checking my local Target occasionally to see how space in the music-and-videos sector is allocated. What I see there is that Blu-ray has more than twice the shelf space it had three months ago, and roughly one-fifth of the total movie space. That's hardly a sign of failure.

Library question, where real-world feedback would be great to have: Does the hardcoat on Blu-ray actually make the discs more durable than DVDs? It should...but "should" is a tricky word.

RE: High Definition DVD

2009-01-05T17:57:23Z

Interesting article. The issue doesn't seem to be the "format" per se, but an industry belief that people people do not want to own movies and would prefer to rent them for each viewing.

I dunno.

RE: High Definition DVD

2009-01-05T17:08:05Z

FWIW, a NYT article -- "Blu-ray’s Fuzzy Future" By MATT RICHTEL and BRAD STONE
Published: January 5, 2009 -- http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/technology/05bluray.html

RE: High Definition DVD

2008-10-30T23:06:49Z

I suppose it's worth noting that when digital broadcasting is mandated this February a lot of people will be buying new TVs, a lot of them HD since they are out there.

Costco hopes so anyway.

I suspect the current recession will have an effect on this, but do expect the HD penetration to go up a few percentage points and with that the penetration of Blu-Ray will also go up.

RE: High Definition DVD

2008-10-30T19:43:46Z

Exactly. 4% of a library's community is enough to be worth serving--especially now that Blu-rays are frequently available for $20 or less (and even the newest are coming down in price).

I'm gratified that my predictions--of lower player prices--were true, but hardly surprised. Now, that name-brand DVD players are now typically $200 to $299...that's a surprise. (By name-brand I mean actual manufacturers--Sony, Pioneer, Panasonic, etc.--as opposed to shell brands like Westinghouse and Magnavox.)

At this point, PS3s are in fact substantially more expensive than rock-bottom Blu-ray drives--but they're faster than most, more capable than most, and I suppose you could play games on them too.

As to the cited article: Pundits are paid to provide punditry. The fact--and this is simply a fact--that U.S. broadband infrastructure can't really handle on-demand true high-def movies on a large scale is irrelevant to good pundits. The fact (and this, too, appears to be a fact) that most people really don't "get" high-def is more significant, and mostly means that plain ol' DVD isn't anywhere near dying.

Now, let's say that ebooks had 4% of the U.S. book market. Can you imagine the crowing there would be over this incredible level of success? DVDs took a long time to be fully established. I don't believe Blu-ray will wholly replace DVD unless studios do something stupid and potentially suicidal (like stopping DVD production). But that doesn't mean Blu-ray is dead. (Actually, anyone who says 4% is an unsupportably tiny niche should talk to Steve Jobs about the unsupportability of a 4% market share...)

RE: High Definition DVD

2008-10-30T19:14:24Z

We bit the bullet in July and ordered a few blockbuster Blu-Ray movies ... they don't stay on the shelves, so we'll be getting more.

The library users have answered.

On another note, I saw that Ghostbusters was released in flashdrive format a month or so ago.

RE: High Definition DVD

2008-10-30T18:21:00Z

Interesting.... I would say thought that from a very practical perspective I now plan to buy a Sony PS3 which I will use to play both DVD's (including Blu-Ray) and games. Seems like the exact same sort of decision most libraries would be wise to consider, especially if they need new DVD players (that they could then use for multitasking on a gmae night, eh?).

RE: High Definition DVD

2008-10-30T14:06:05Z

The title is a bit sensationalist, but this blog post has some interesting information:

"Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!" -- http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=365

Re: High Definition DVD

2008-04-10T20:05:24Z

Hi Walt,

I'm no doubt parroting the "3X" figure from something else I read ... that might be 3X the average DVD since there are an awful lot of $2 DVDs out there bring down the average.

What do you think of the recent "flash" tech coming down the pike? Supposedly, there's something new out there that's *very* dense and *very* stable ... but far enough out in development that the media companies would have time to milk the Blu-Ray market before it's succeeded.

Re: High Definition DVD

2008-04-10T19:56:56Z

Well, it <b>could</b> be forced the same way the migration from LP to CD was forced: Studios could stop releasing regular DVDs. That seems unlikely, given that people can just walk away.

Around here, Blu-Ray discs in retail stores cost around $5-$10 more than regular DVDs, certainly not triple the price. I guess we're lucky (or competitive?).

My best guess is that player prices will head down again, since a lot of companies are competing (actually, again, here they dropped back to $399 almost immediately--and the PlayStation 3 continues to be one of the cheapest and best Blu-ray players). What you won't get is what Toshiba was doing, apparently: Losing money on every HD DVD drive in the hopes of building a market. I'd be astonished if there wasn't a $250 Blu-ray player in time for the 2008 holiday shopping season...

Yep, I've seen Sony's claim. I also regard it as highly unlikely, no matter how you define the marketplace.

If the Blu-ray player market does get big fast (and Playstation 3 seems to be the driver there as well), it would be interesting to see creative studios using the 25GB/50GB discs as big fat DVDs--e.g., putting a whole TV season of any TV show filmed prior to HDTV out on one or two discs, or, say, putting out 250-movie public domain packs on a dozen discs. But that's probably a few years away.

Re: High Definition DVD

2008-04-10T19:18:48Z

I don't see how Blu-Ray could be forced. The player price went up once the alternative dropped out of the format race and the average Blu-Ray costs something like 3 times a regular DVD (which I see as a public library opportunity!).

An upgrade DVD player does yield a pretty good picture.

On the other hand, there was a note somewhere (Slashdot?) that led to a link from a Sony press release stating that they would have 50% of the market within 2 years. I doubt it ... unless they're talking about "retail value" rather than raw number of discs ... and then I still doubt it.

Re: High Definition DVD

2008-04-10T16:17:32Z

Dipping back in here...

Yes, studios would love to sell the same content once again.

On the other hand, as with the VHS-to-DVD transition, there's a real difference in that content. For most people on most TVs, it's not as obvious a difference. Last I heard, it was still true that roughly half of HDTV owners aren't really watching HDTV and don't realize it. (I'm sure there are some people who don't see the quality difference between DVD and VHS, for that matter.)

On the gripping hand, most good Blu-ray players (and any remaining HD DVD players) not only play DVDs just fine (whereas very few DVD players play videocassettes), they also improve the DVD picture--not to Blu-ray quality, but to something better than the original.

My not-very-well-informed guess is that studios won't try to strongarm a Blu-ray transition (that is, won't stop releasing regular DVDs), at least not for a couple years yet. And since all of your library's regular DVDs will work just fine on Blu-ray players, there's no wasted investment.

Re: High Definition DVD

2008-02-21T20:38:59Z

Yup. The manufacturers get to sell us new equipment and the media companies get to sell us new copies of what we already own.

It's hard to know how this is going to end ... but I suspect the consumers will wind up paying (again) for a long, long time.

On the other hand, this is also driven by "newer" and "better" -- both of which may be valid claims. I certainly enjoy Blu-ray on a big screen HD TV when my son graciously loans his Playstation 3 for the purpose.

Re: High Definition DVD

2008-02-21T17:52:29Z

It might be justified for a library to buy HD DVD (and accessories) in support of a college/university program that focuses on film production, editing, animation, etc. Perhaps some already have...?

IMO, aren't we always having to upgrade? Beta...VHS...DVD....BluRay?

Jocelyn

Re: High Definition DVD

2008-02-20T17:30:17Z

Blog post: "It's official: Toshiba announces HD DVD surrender" --
http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9874199-1.html

Press Release: "Toshiba Announces Discontinuation of HD DVD Businesses" --
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080219/20080219005651.html